Current implied probability
10 27.4%+0.5ptLeader of 5 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
64 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$22
Liquidity
$30.2K
High liquiditySpread
2.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
7d Change
+2.5 pts
Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Aug 20, 26, 9:12 AM UTCOct 12, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
The 2026 French Senate election is scheduled for September 27, 2026, renewing série 2 — 178 of the Senate's 348 seats.
- The new senators are currently scheduled to take office on October 1, 2026, and the deadline for submitting new political-group membership lists and political declarations is currently set for October 5, 2026, at 4:00 PM CEST.
- The National Rally (Rassemblement National, RN) has never had a political group in the French Senate.
- A political group in the Senate requires a minimum of ten senators.
- This market will resolve according to the number of French Senate seats held by a political group representing the RN as of October 12, 2026, 4:00 PM CEST.
- The seat count will be the group's total membership as published by the French Senate (senat.fr), counting members (membres), related (apparentés), and affiliated (rattachés).