Current implied probability
59-61 35.3%Leader of 7 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$27.7K
High liquiditySpread
0.4 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
7d Change
+3.4 pts
Market data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Aug 19, 26, 7:52 PM UTCOct 12, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
The 2026 French Senate election is scheduled for September 27, 2026, renewing série 2 — 178 of the Senate's 348 seats.
- The new senators are currently scheduled to take office on October 1, 2026, and the deadline for submitting new political-group membership lists and political declarations is currently set for October 5, 2026, at 4:00 PM CEST.
- This market will resolve according to the number of French Senate seats held by the Groupe Union Centriste as of October 12, 2026, 4:00 PM CEST.
- The seat count will be the group's total membership as published by the French Senate (senat.fr), counting members (membres), related (apparentés), and affiliated (rattachés).
- A group will qualify as the Groupe Union Centriste if it satisfies at least one of the following: - Its official name includes "Union Centriste" or a clear variant thereof; - Its political declaration published in the Official Journal (Journal Officiel) of France identifies it as a continuation of the group; or - It is publicly recognized as the continuation of the Groupe Union Centriste, and this characterization is confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting.
- A group that changes its name will continue to qualify if it meets at least one of the criteria above.
Open markets
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- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
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POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16.2%
- Jon Ossoff-2.0pt16.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
+45 more outcomes
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KALSHINew Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Chris Pappas+1.3pt100%
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Union Centriste Seat Count after French Senate Election??
- Polymarket prices 59-61 at 35% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Union Centriste Seat Count after French Senate Election? resolve?
- Union Centriste Seat Count after French Senate Election? is scheduled to resolve on October 12, 2026.
- How is Union Centriste Seat Count after French Senate Election? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: The 2026 French Senate election is scheduled for September 27, 2026, renewing série 2 — 178 of the Senate's 348 seats.