Will the Eritrean government collapse before or within 5 years of Isaias Afwerki's death?
One-OffPoliticsGeopolitics
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 55.4%
Forecasters
4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingMay 26, 24, 3:54 AM UTCJan 2, 50, 7:59 AM UTC
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PolymarketRules
Isaias Afwerki has been the dictator of Eritrea since its founding in 1993.
- He runs the country completely on his own, does not have a clear second-in-command, and does not have a clear successor in place.
- If, after 5 years of his death, the PFDJ (ruling party) has lost power over the Eritrean government, the question will resolve YES.
- Otherwise, it will resolve NO.
- Edit: I'm so stupid, I forgot the possibility of it collapsing before his death.
- In such case, the question resolves YES.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the Eritrean government collapse before or within 5 years of Isaias Afwerki's death??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 55% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will the Eritrean government collapse before or within 5 years of Isaias Afwerki's death? resolve?
- Will the Eritrean government collapse before or within 5 years of Isaias Afwerki's death? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2050.
- How is Will the Eritrean government collapse before or within 5 years of Isaias Afwerki's death? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Isaias Afwerki has been the dictator of Eritrea since its founding in 1993.