Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 69.3%
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29
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Forecast
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Updated 17 hours ago
StaleMay 10, 26, 6:08 PM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
by near-fully automated, i mean <=5 people are even plausibly making important decisions (like, everyone else could go on vacation forever and it would not slow the company down at all).
- frontier lab means has the best models or pretty close to the best models in 2029. right now, openai, anthropic, deepmind definitely count; xai, meta don't yet but plausibly could soonish.
- resolves based on the state of the world on Jan 1 2029, though it may take a while to resolve because the info may be private.
- resolves NA if WWIII happens. resolves as usual if a local Taiwan war happens without escalating to WWIII. resolves NO if there are no frontier AI labs anymore because the AI industry collapsed.
- Update 2026-05-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Important decisions means anything affecting the speed at which the lab achieves AGI, including relatively 'micro' decisions (e.g. which experiments to run).
- A person counts as plausibly making important decisions unless there is strong evidence their decision-making adds no value over an AI model
