Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 62.8%
Forecasters
109
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 38 minutes ago
Aug 29, 23, 10:49 PM UTCJan 1, 75, 4:59 AM UTC
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KalshiRules
Up to now, increasing automation has resulted in more jobs being created than lost or overtaken by the machines.
- However, there are an increasing number of reports which state that, with the advent of AI, this time will be different.
- Recently, Goldman Sachs has estimate that 25% of all jobs could be entirely automated by currently existing AI technologies.
- And there was a report by McKinsey, published in 2017, which claimed that by the year 2055, nearly 50% of all jobs could be fully automated.
- Recent advances in generative AI have only added to the discourse with the supposition that it is the white collar work that will be automated away first...
- Will resolve "Yes" if at any time before January 1st 2075, all jobs that could be held by a human are instead given over to an AI, and everyone everywhere finds themselves both unemployed, and unemployable.