Will a woman walk on Mars before a woman is president of the United States?
One-OffPoliticsSpaceUS PoliticsElection
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 77.9%
Forecasters
82
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleMar 16, 24, 6:06 PM UTCJan 21, 49, 6:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will a woman walk on the moon before a woman is president of the United States?
Manifold MarketsWill the first person to walk on Mars be a woman?
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Manifold MarketsWill the first woman president of the United States be a Republican?
Manifold MarketsWill a humanoid robot walk on Mars before a human does?
KalshiWill Zohran Mamdani become President of the United States before Jan 22, 2045?
KalshiRules
The close date is arbitrary; either I or a moderator will extend the close date as needed until either of the criteria have been met.
- For purposes of this market, "woman" is someone who identifies as a woman at the time of the respective event.
- If an astronaut or politician walked on Mars or became President of the United States as a man and then identified as transgender after leaving Mars or the Presidency, respectively, then that would not satisfy the criteria (unless they were to return to Mars or regain the presidency).
- I will not bet in this market.
- Related market: @/jks/will-a-woman-walk-on-the-moon-befor
