What are the current odds for Will a woman walk on the moon before a woman is president of the United States??

Manifold Markets prices Yes at 68.2% as of October 28, 2026.

Will a woman walk on the moon before a woman is president of the United States?

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

Yes 68.2%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 13 hours ago

Stale

Mar 18, 24, 3:37 PM UTCJan 21, 33, 6:59 AM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

The close date is arbitrary; either I or a moderator will extend the close date as needed until either of the criteria have been met.

For purposes of this market, "woman" is someone who identifies as a woman at the time of the respective event.
If an astronaut or politician walked on the moon or became President of the United States as a man and then identified as transgender after leaving the moon or the Presidency, respectively, then that would not satisfy the criteria (unless they were to return to the moon or regain the presidency).
I will not bet in this market.
@/jks/will-a-woman-walk-on-mars-before-a