Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in a war during the 2nd Trump administration?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsGeopolitics2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 5:41 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 87.4%
Forecasters
23
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingNov 13, 24, 11:25 PM UTCJan 6, 29, 4:59 AM UTC
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KalshiRules
Resolves YES if a nuclear bomb is used against an enemy target by any nation at any point between Trump’s inauguration and (hopeful) exit from office.
- If Trump dies this question will apply to JD Vance’s administration.
