Will transgender people be denied US passports on the basis of trans status by the end of the 2nd Trump administration?
US PoliticsOne-Off2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 84.4%
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41
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingFeb 16, 25, 5:10 PM UTCJan 21, 29, 4:59 AM UTC
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KalshiRules
Background: some people have claimed that the Trump administration plans to refuse passports to trans people.
- The State Department has said they will « only issue passports with an M or F sex marker that match the customer's biological sex at birth. » Some trans people report delays of less than a month in passport processing.
- This question will resolve YES if credible reports emerge of at least 5 people being denied US passports because they are trans.
- The question will NOT resolve yes if:
- 1) Trans people are denied passports for reasons unrelated to being trans
- 2) Delays in passport processing occur
