Transgender US passports with non-birth gender revoked by February 2029?
One-OffUS PoliticsSociety & CultureHealth & Medicine2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 9:52 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 60.1%
Forecasters
16
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleNov 16, 25, 1:43 AM UTCJan 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Basically the same as my previous market.
- Same resolution criteria, minus the timeline.
- De facto situation or any legal action trigger resolution.
- Phrasing of end of timeline is weird to maximize handling of edge cases.
- Update 2026-05-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The soft revocation scenario (where passports are notionally valid but unusable for re-entry) was an oversight in the original resolution criteria.
- The creator intends to resolve based on what events actually happen rather than specific wording, but acknowledges that the literal text of the market description takes precedence over intent.
