Will a cruise ship be sunk by terrorists or a state military force by the end of 2027?
GeopoliticsOne-Off1y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 89.1%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleApr 4, 26, 11:33 AM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will China state vessels (e.g., CCG) board a commercial cargo ship heading to Taiwan's main island before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump use military force to seize control of Greenland or the Panama Canal?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump be removed or resign from office if he uses military force against Greenland?
Manifold MarketsChina to try to take Taiwan using military force by the end of 2026?
FutuurWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketRules
Will a cruise ship be sunk by terrorists or a state military force by the end of 2027?
- The ship must not be decommissioned but must be actively in service.
- The perpetrator could be a state’s navy, a special operations unit, a terrorist organization, or a lone terrorist. “Sunk” means that the ship is rendered unseaworthy and at least 50% of its above-water superstructure is submerged.
- Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to "Yes" if, before 11:59 PM UTC on December 31, 2027, a cruise ship is sunk by a state military force, a terrorist organization, or a lone actor.
- For the purpose of this market:
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $25.8M
- 24h Vol
- $574.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.1pt48.3%
- October 31-3.0pt28.9%
- September 30-4.0pt12.3%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-4.0pt75%
- September 18-7.0pt69%
- September 11-13.0pt57%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.1pt96%
- Yes+0.1pt4%
- Total Vol
- $41.1M
- 24h Vol
- $109.5K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a cruise ship be sunk by terrorists or a state military force by the end of 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 89% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will a cruise ship be sunk by terrorists or a state military force by the end of 2027? resolve?
- Will a cruise ship be sunk by terrorists or a state military force by the end of 2027? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2027.
- How is Will a cruise ship be sunk by terrorists or a state military force by the end of 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Will a cruise ship be sunk by terrorists or a state military force by the end of 2027?