Will Donald Trump use military force to seize control of Greenland or the Panama Canal?
US PoliticsGeopoliticsOne-Off3y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 3:37 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 92%
Forecasters
54
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleJan 8, 25, 12:09 AM UTCDec 31, 29, 3:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
Any use of military force whether sucessful or not will resolve to Yes.
- Use of military force will be interpreted as employing any branch of the US Department of Defense to attack, intimidate, or coerce via military weapons, officers, officials, soldiers, technology and/or intelligence.
- Update 2026-01-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve NO if there are no credible reports or evidence to suggest the US military is involved to take over Greenland at any time during Donald Trump's 2nd term.
- Note: The creator's clarification only mentions Greenland, not the Panama Canal, which is also part of the market question.