Will Donald Trump use military force to seize control of Greenland or the Panama Canal?
US PoliticsGeopoliticsOne-Off3y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 86%
Forecasters
53
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleJan 8, 25, 12:09 AM UTCDec 31, 29, 3:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Trump take back the Panama Canal?
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PolymarketWill Trump deploy the US military to the Panama Canal?
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KalshiWill the US control Greenland in 2026?
FutuurRules
Any use of military force whether sucessful or not will resolve to Yes.
- Use of military force will be interpreted as employing any branch of the US Department of Defense to attack, intimidate, or coerce via military weapons, officers, officials, soldiers, technology and/or intelligence.
- Update 2026-01-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve NO if there are no credible reports or evidence to suggest the US military is involved to take over Greenland at any time during Donald Trump's 2nd term.
- Note: The creator's clarification only mentions Greenland, not the Panama Canal, which is also part of the market question.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Donald Trump use military force to seize control of Greenland or the Panama Canal??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 86% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Donald Trump use military force to seize control of Greenland or the Panama Canal? resolve?
- Will Donald Trump use military force to seize control of Greenland or the Panama Canal? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2029.
- How is Will Donald Trump use military force to seize control of Greenland or the Panama Canal? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Any use of military force whether sucessful or not will resolve to Yes.