Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 79%
Forecasters
309
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Jan 20, 25, 7:14 PM UTCDec 20, 29, 10:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Donald Trump use military force to seize control of Greenland or the Panama Canal?
Manifold MarketsUS takes Panama Canal before 2027?
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Manifold MarketsWill USA use military force to take control over either Greenland, Canada or the Panama Canal before 2029?
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KalshiRules
If the United States government has taken control of at least some part of the Panama Canal before January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Outcome verified from The New York Times.
- Resolves identically to this Kalshi market: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcanal/panama-canal-retaken
- Update 2025-20-01 (PST): - Control means the United States assumes new primary operational authority over some part of the canal.
- (AI summary of creator comment)
Prediction Source Comparison
Open markets
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Trump take back the Panama Canal??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 79% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Trump take back the Panama Canal? resolve?
- Will Trump take back the Panama Canal? is scheduled to resolve on December 20, 2029.
- How is Will Trump take back the Panama Canal? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: If the United States government has taken control of at least some part of the Panama Canal before January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Where else is Will Trump take back the Panama Canal? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Kalshi.