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When will Russia attack Europe with military force?

GeopoliticsOne-OffRussia / Ukraine Europe6y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Data quality warningStale data

Data as of Jul 18, 2026, 4:20 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-2

Current community forecast

Never 32%+4.3%

Leader of 4 outcomes

Forecasters

52

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 7 days ago

Stale

Nov 18, 23, 7:18 AMMar 19, 33, 10:59 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice

Selected outcome

Never32%

Stake (USDT)

Rules

https://dgap.org/en/research/publications/preventing-next-war

With its imperial ambitions, Russia represents the greatest and most urgent threat to NATO countries.
Once intensive fighting will have ended in Ukraine, the regime in Moscow may need as little as six to ten years to reconstitute its armed forces.
Within that timeframe, Germany and NATO must enable their armed forces to deter and, if necessary, fight against Russia.
Only then will they be in a position to reduce the risk of another war breaking out in Europe.
A few clarifications, from the comments below:

Volume trend

$191

Jul 115d of dataJul 18

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Rules

https://dgap.org/en/research/publications/preventing-next-war

With its imperial ambitions, Russia represents the greatest and most urgent threat to NATO countries.
Once intensive fighting will have ended in Ukraine, the regime in Moscow may need as little as six to ten years to reconstitute its armed forces.
Within that timeframe, Germany and NATO must enable their armed forces to deter and, if necessary, fight against Russia.
Only then will they be in a position to reduce the risk of another war breaking out in Europe.
A few clarifications, from the comments below: