When will Russia attack Europe with military force?
0.1 pts (24h)GeopoliticsOne-OffRussia / UkraineEurope6y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNever 32.6%-0.1ptLeader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
57
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-0.1 pts
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleNov 18, 23, 7:18 AM UTCMar 19, 33, 10:59 PM UTC
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FutuurWill Russia attack a NATO member in 2026?
FutuurRules
https://dgap.org/en/research/publications/preventing-next-war
- With its imperial ambitions, Russia represents the greatest and most urgent threat to NATO countries.
- Once intensive fighting will have ended in Ukraine, the regime in Moscow may need as little as six to ten years to reconstitute its armed forces.
- Within that timeframe, Germany and NATO must enable their armed forces to deter and, if necessary, fight against Russia.
- Only then will they be in a position to reduce the risk of another war breaking out in Europe.
- A few clarifications, from the comments below:
