FutuurCheck availabilityVerified resolution dataCurrent implied probability
No 99%
No 99%Market quality
34 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$1.5K
Low liquidityTraders
35
Comments
3
Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will a cruise ship be sunk by terrorists or a state military force by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump use military force to seize control of Greenland or the Panama Canal?
Manifold MarketsWill USA use military force to take control over either Greenland, Canada or the Panama Canal before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump be removed or resign from office if he uses military force against Greenland?
Manifold MarketsWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms?
Manifold MarketsRules
Tensions between the People's Republic of China and the Republic of China (a.k.a.
- Taiwan) have risen since 2016.
- If by December 31st, 2026, the People's Republic of China deploys military strength in an attempt to take control over the Taiwanese territory, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Only kinetic military action will be considered to resolve this market.
- Kinetic military action excludes electronic and cybernetic war resources and includes the shooting of projectiles, troops, and land armored vehicles deployment inside Taiwanese territory.
- The deployment of airships and warships to Taiwanese territories will only be taken into account if it causes structural damage or leads to a martial response, and each of such cases will be analyzed individually.