Will Trump be removed or resign from office if he uses military force against Greenland?
PoliticsGeopoliticsOne-OffUS Politics2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 69.4%
Forecasters
102
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleJan 18, 26, 11:47 AM UTCJan 20, 29, 11:59 AM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves YES if Trump deploys U.S. military forces to Greenland without Danish/Greenlandic consent in an attempt to establish control over any portion of its territory, AND leaves office before January 20, 2029 via:
- Impeachment and Senate conviction, OR
- Resolves NO if he deploys such forces and completes his term (or leaves due to e.g. death or incapacitation)
- Resolves N/A if no unauthorized military deployment to Greenland occurs.
- Update 2026-01-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Removal via military coup or other non-constitutional means would resolve NO.
- The market specifically tracks removal through constitutional accountability (impeachment/conviction) or political pressure (resignation) only.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Trump be removed or resign from office if he uses military force against Greenland??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 69% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Trump be removed or resign from office if he uses military force against Greenland? resolve?
- Will Trump be removed or resign from office if he uses military force against Greenland? is scheduled to resolve on January 20, 2029.
- How is Will Trump be removed or resign from office if he uses military force against Greenland? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if Trump deploys U.S. military forces to Greenland without Danish/Greenlandic consent in an attempt to establish control over any portion of its territory, AND leaves office before January 20, 2029 via: