Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 5:41 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 86%
Forecasters
20
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleJan 18, 26, 3:35 PM UTCJan 20, 29, 12:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Trump be removed or resign from office if he uses military force against Greenland?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump be removed from office before January 20th of 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill Mitch McConnell resign his office before the midterms?
KalshiWill Nancy Pelosi resign her office before the midterms?
KalshiWill Don Bacon resign his office before the midterms?
KalshiTrump removed via 25th Amendment before 2027?
PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if Trump leaves office before January 20, 2029 via:
- Impeachment and Senate conviction, OR
- Resolves NO if he completes his term (or leaves due to death or incapacitation).
- Resolves N/A if the office of the presedency ceases to exist.
- Update 2026-01-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Trump is removed via the 25th Amendment and it lasts for the remainder of his term, the market resolves YES.