Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 88.4%
Forecasters
16
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleJan 18, 26, 3:35 PM UTCJan 20, 29, 12:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Trump be removed or resign from office if he uses military force against Greenland?
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PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if Trump leaves office before January 20, 2029 via:
- Impeachment and Senate conviction, OR
- Resolves NO if he completes his term (or leaves due to death or incapacitation).
- Resolves N/A if the office of the presedency ceases to exist.
- Update 2026-01-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Trump is removed via the 25th Amendment and it lasts for the remainder of his term, the market resolves YES.
Open markets
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+49 more outcomes
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- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
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- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
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+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
- $547.7K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
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POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
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+38 more outcomes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Trump be removed or resign from office before 2029??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 88% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Trump be removed or resign from office before 2029? resolve?
- Will Trump be removed or resign from office before 2029? is scheduled to resolve on January 20, 2029.
- How is Will Trump be removed or resign from office before 2029? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if Trump leaves office before January 20, 2029 via: