Will 10 or more people be injured or killed in a dispute/conflict between Turkey and Greece, prior to 2030
GeopoliticsOne-Off3y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 72%
Forecasters
14
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleMay 11, 23, 4:59 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 8:59 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
This market will resolve yes if it is reported (in a reputable fashion) by Wikipedia that 10 or more peeople are injured/killed in a dispute/conflict between Turkey and Greece after the start date of this market.
- I will likely refer to this page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aegean_dispute, however any Wikipedia page counts (I'm more or less intending to use it as a news aggregator in this case).
- If multiple reputable sources for >10 people being injured/killed are posted in the comments, I am likely to count that as well.
- I will verify the source shown on Wikipedia, and will not resolve this market to yes if it seems like the source is false.
- If the reputability of the source becomes a contentious point, I will attempt to compensate an (uninvested) Admin to resolve this market.
- I will not bet in this market.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will 10 or more people be injured or killed in a dispute/conflict between Turkey and Greece, prior to 2030?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 72% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will 10 or more people be injured or killed in a dispute/conflict between Turkey and Greece, prior to 2030 resolve?
- Will 10 or more people be injured or killed in a dispute/conflict between Turkey and Greece, prior to 2030 is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2029.
- How is Will 10 or more people be injured or killed in a dispute/conflict between Turkey and Greece, prior to 2030 settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market will resolve yes if it is reported (in a reputable fashion) by Wikipedia that 10 or more peeople are injured/killed in a dispute/conflict between Turkey and Greece after the start date of this market.