Who will win the 2028 United States Presidential Election?
0.1 pts (24h)One-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsElection2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Other 32.6%+0.1ptLeader of 21 outcomes
Forecasters
591
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+0.5 pts
Market data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Aug 13, 24, 7:21 PM UTCNov 26, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Who will win the 2028 United States presidential election?
Manifold MarketsWill Mike Johnson win the 2028 United States Presidential election?
Manifold MarketsWill the 2028 United States presidential election be free and fair, according to ≥75% of Manifold poll respondents?
Manifold MarketsWill JD Vance be elected President of the United States in 2028?
FutuurWill Gavin Newsom be elected President of the United States in 2028?
FutuurWill Xi Jinping visit the United States?
KalshiRules
Resolves 100% to the person who wins the majority of votes for US President in the Electoral College in 2028, or selected by Congress following the contingency procedure in the Twelfth Amendment.
- This market may resolve prior to official certification of the electoral college votes if the election has been called by all major decision desks.
- Additional likely candidates will be added by the house as necessary and will split off from "other".
- Please leave a comment if you have any suggestions.
- @/ManifoldPolitics/who-will-be-the-two-major-party-nom @/DylanSlagh/who-will-win-the-2028-united-states-9a306926e237
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Robinhood (Rothera) — 2028 US Presidential Election: Winner · JVAN 30%
- Also available on Polymarket — Presidential Election Winner 2028 · JD Vance 24%
- Also available on Limitless — Presidential Election Winner 2028 · JD Vance 21%
- Also available on Smarkets — 2028 Presidential Election Winner · JD Vance 19%
- Also available on Manifold Markets — Who will be elected president in the 2028 US election? · J.D. Vance 20%
- Also available on Futuur — US Presidential Election Winner in 2028 · Gavin Newsom 28%
- Also available on PredictIt — Who will win the 2028 US presidential election? · JD Vance 21%
- Also available on Kalshi — 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? · J.D. Vance 23%
Open markets
Politics
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Who will win the 2028 United States Presidential Election??
- Manifold Markets prices Other at 33% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Who will win the 2028 United States Presidential Election? resolve?
- Who will win the 2028 United States Presidential Election? is scheduled to resolve on November 26, 2028.
- How is Who will win the 2028 United States Presidential Election? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves 100% to the person who wins the majority of votes for US President in the Electoral College in 2028, or selected by Congress following the contingency procedure in the Twelfth Amendment.