Who will win the 2028 United States Presidential Election?
0.4 pts (24h)One-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsElection2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 7:45 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
Other 30.9%-0.4ptLeader of 21 outcomes
Other 30.9%-0.4ptForecasters
598
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-0.2 pts
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingAug 13, 24, 7:21 PM UTCNov 26, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
Resolves 100% to the person who wins the majority of votes for US President in the Electoral College in 2028, or selected by Congress following the contingency procedure in the Twelfth Amendment.
- This market may resolve prior to official certification of the electoral college votes if the election has been called by all major decision desks.
- Additional likely candidates will be added by the house as necessary and will split off from "other".
- Please leave a comment if you have any suggestions.
- @/ManifoldPolitics/who-will-be-the-two-major-party-nom @/DylanSlagh/who-will-win-the-2028-united-states-9a306926e237
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Robinhood (Rothera) — 2028 US Presidential Election: Winner · JVAN 25%
- Also available on Polymarket — Presidential Election Winner 2028 · JD Vance 20%
- Also available on Manifold Markets — Will the 2028 presidential election winner be a millennial? · No 68%
- Also available on Limitless — Presidential Election Winner 2028 · JD Vance 20%
- Also available on Futuur — US Presidential Election Winner in 2028 ·