Manifold MarketsNo KYCCurrent community forecastKamala Harris 3.6%Leader of 61 outcomes
Forecasters
479
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 days ago
StaleAug 18, 23, 4:14 PMFeb 2, 29, 4:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Kamala Harris4%
Also available on PredictIt
Who will win the 2028 US presidential election?
22%
17%
16%
+10 more outcomes
Retail prediction exchange
Total Vol$0
24h Vol$0
PREDICTITAlso available on Manifold Markets
Who will be elected president in the 2028 US election?
2y
15.3%
2.7%
0.1%
+16 more outcomes
Community forecast108 forecastersType: multiple choice
Total Vol$31.8K
24h Vol$103
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Manifold Markets
Who will win the 2028 US presidential elections?
2y
1.7%
0.6%
1.1%
+27 more outcomes
Community forecast42 forecastersType: multiple choice
Total Vol$19.6K
24h Vol$114.1
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Manifold Markets
Who will win the 2028 United States Presidential Election?
2y
3.1%
-0.4%19.2%
0.8%
+18 more outcomes
Community forecast577 forecastersType: multiple choice
Total Vol$553.5K
24h Vol$1.4K
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Manifold Markets
Who will be elected president in 2028?
2y
+0.2%3.6%
0.6%
-0.1%1.6%
+97 more outcomes
Community forecast1,973 forecastersType: multiple choice
Total Vol$1.7M
24h Vol$2K
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Manifold Markets
Who will be elected President in 2028? (limited choices)
2y
19.2%
14.8%
13%
+1 more outcomes
Community forecast32 forecastersType: multiple choice
Total Vol$9.8K
24h Vol$91.9
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Manifold Markets
Who will win the 2028 US presidential election?
2y
13.8%
3.8%
1.6%
+44 more outcomes
Community forecast146 forecastersType: multiple choice
Total Vol$73.2K
24h Vol$102
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
Resolves to 100% of whoever wins the 2028 presidential election.
- Remember to bet "Other" if you think there is a substantial probability its someone not yet listed but you don't know who it might be.
- I believe betting for Other gives you free shares for anyone added later
- Resolves "None" in any case where the United States ceses to exist or if no election is held.
- If the election is postponed then this market resolves to whoever wins the postponed election, unless the election is held in or after 2032, in which case this market resolves to "None".
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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Resolves to 100% of whoever wins the 2028 presidential election.
- Remember to bet "Other" if you think there is a substantial probability its someone not yet listed but you don't know who it might be.
- I believe betting for Other gives you free shares for anyone added later
- Resolves "None" in any case where the United States ceses to exist or if no election is held.
- If the election is postponed then this market resolves to whoever wins the postponed election, unless the election is held in or after 2032, in which case this market resolves to "None".