Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastTony Blair (former UK Prime Minister) 100%Leader of 27 outcomes
Forecasters
38
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleJan 20, 26, 4:29 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 4:11 AM UTC
Trends
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Israel agree to the Board of Peace Gaza plan in 2026?
Manifold MarketsMembers of the legislature (congress, parliament) in a country come to blows this year? mega-market
Manifold MarketsWhich countries will join NATO as members in 2026?
FutuurWill any of the UN’s Security Council permanent members leave the Non-Proliferation Treaty by the end of 2026?
FutuurNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
PolymarketRussia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
PolymarketRules
Described by Trump as the “the Greatest and Most Prestigious Board ever assembled,”
- Resolution Criteria
- The Board of Peace has a multi-level structure with a main Board set to be composed mainly of country leaders, with about 60 countries invited as per January 20, 2026.
- Answers resolves continuously based on official communications regarding individuals that start actively holding formal seats on the main Board of Peace (not to be confused with the Gaza executive board)..
- Supporting roles below the top level, like those held by the Aryeh Lightstone and Josh Gruenbaum, do not count for this market.
- Possible resolution sources:
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $25.8M
- 24h Vol
- $574.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.1pt48.3%
- October 31-3.0pt28.9%
- September 30-4.0pt12.3%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-4.0pt75%
- September 18-7.0pt69%
- September 11-13.0pt57%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.1pt96%
- Yes+0.1pt4%
- Total Vol
- $41.1M
- 24h Vol
- $109.5K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Members of the Board of Peace??
- Manifold Markets prices Tony Blair (former UK Prime Minister) at 100% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Members of the Board of Peace? resolve?
- Members of the Board of Peace? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Members of the Board of Peace? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Described by Trump as the “the Greatest and Most Prestigious Board ever assembled,”