Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 87.7%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Aug 8, 26, 4:13 AM UTCJan 5, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
[ACX 2026] Will Saudi Arabia and Israel agree to normalise diplomatic relations during 2026?
Manifold MarketsMembers of the Board of Peace?
Manifold Markets"Board of Peace" established before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the Trump's Board of Peace help with long term peace in the Iran conflict
Manifold MarketsForeign intervention in Gaza by which date?
PolymarketWill Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by which date?
PolymarketRules
On July 30, 2026, the Board of Peace announced "A Roadmap for Completing the Implementation of President Trump's Comprehensive Peace Plan in Gaza" (the "Board of Peace roadmap"), setting out a phased process for disarmament in and Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip.
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces that it has accepted or does accept this roadmap by December 31 11:59 PM, 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Israel's acceptance of a plan described by a consensus of credible reporting as a revised or successor agreement to the initial roadmap (e.g., the implementation mechanism described in the roadmap) will qualify.
- A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of Israel's acceptance of or commitment to this roadmap or a qualifying successor agreement.
- A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the Board of Peace roadmap or a successor agreement.
