Who will lose his job first: Defense Secretary Hegseth or Defense Minister Dong?
PoliticsGeopolitics2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastPete Hegseth 88.3%
Forecasters
13
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleApr 22, 25, 3:42 AM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Who will be Israeli defense minister after the election?
KalshiWill China's Defense Minister Li Shangfu die in a plane crash?
Manifold MarketsWill Scott Alexander lose a job position for behavior, before 2030?
Manifold MarketsIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketUS-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria:
- This market will resolve to the individual who remains in their position as Defense Secretary or Defense Minister for the longer duration.
- If both individuals lose their job on the same day (per announcement), resolves 50/50
- Resolves on official government statements, not rumours.
- the named outcome: Appointed as the 29th United States Secretary of Defense on January 25, 2025, under President Donald Trump.
- Hegseth, a former Army National Guard officer and Fox News host, has faced controversies, including allegations of sharing sensitive military information via unsecured channels.