Who will lose his job first: Defense Secretary Hegseth or Defense Minister Dong?
PoliticsGeopolitics2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastPete Hegseth 88.3%
Forecasters
13
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleApr 22, 25, 3:42 AM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Pete Hegseth serve a full term as Secretary of Defense (until January 2029)?
Manifold MarketsWho will be Israeli defense minister after the election?
KalshiWill Peter Hegseth be impeached during Trump's second presidential term?
Manifold MarketsPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by September 30?
PolymarketPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31?
PolymarketPete Hegseth impeached by which date?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria:
- This market will resolve to the individual who remains in their position as Defense Secretary or Defense Minister for the longer duration.
- If both individuals lose their job on the same day (per announcement), resolves 50/50
- Resolves on official government statements, not rumours.
- the named outcome: Appointed as the 29th United States Secretary of Defense on January 25, 2025, under President Donald Trump.
- Hegseth, a former Army National Guard officer and Fox News host, has faced controversies, including allegations of sharing sensitive military information via unsecured channels.
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $704M
- 24h Vol
- $804.1K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.3pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt73.3%
- New People (NL)-2.7pt22.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701.1M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16.2%
- Jon Ossoff-2.0pt16.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.4M
KALSHINew Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Chris Pappas+1.3pt100%
- Karishma Manzur-1.8pt0%
- Jared Sullivan-0.2pt0%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- Next French Presidential Election
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- NJ-07 House winner?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Who will lose his job first: Defense Secretary Hegseth or Defense Minister Dong??
- Manifold Markets prices Pete Hegseth at 88% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Who will lose his job first: Defense Secretary Hegseth or Defense Minister Dong? resolve?
- Who will lose his job first: Defense Secretary Hegseth or Defense Minister Dong? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2028.
- How is Who will lose his job first: Defense Secretary Hegseth or Defense Minister Dong? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria: