Will Scott Alexander lose a job position for behavior, before 2030?
One-OffBusiness & CorporateSociety & Culture3yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 96.9%
Forecasters
22
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJan 17, 23, 4:15 AM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Failure to perform doesn't count -- it must be due to behavioral or social problems, not performance.
- Can be termination or resignation, since the boundary is sometimes blurry.
- As long as the position was credibly ended because of the behavior.
- Some examples that would count:
- -Sexual harassment allegations that resulted in termination or resignation
- -Resigning after an inflammatory email is made public
