Which of the following scenarios is likely to occur regarding Netanyahu’s trial?
PoliticsAIGeopolitics3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast1) Prolonged limbo via security delays 86.4%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
13
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleJul 16, 25, 10:08 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 9:45 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When in 2026 will US federal government present a new narrative, with documentation, regarding UAP/UFO events?
Manifold MarketsLuigi Mangione NY Trial Prop Bets [Add Answers]
Manifold MarketsHow many ‘Core #1’ convicts from Brazil’s coup plot trial will lose military ranks in 2026?
FutuurWill Benjamin Netanyahu ever be arrested, detained or face trial for war crimes?
Manifold MarketsWill Netanyahu be arrested?
KalshiBinyamin Netanyahu still Prime Minister of Israel through the end of 2026?
FutuurRules
Resolution Criteria:
- Prolonged limbo via security delays : The anticipated verdict slips past 2026
- Immunity law passed (retroactive immunity)
- Criteria: The Knesset passes and enacts a law specifically granting immunity to Netanyahu, either prospectively or retroactively, after his trial began, with effective date allowing dismissal of his current charges.
- Proof needed:
- Text of law explicitly states immunity covering Netanyahu’s ongoing indictments.
Open markets
Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
- $547.7K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which of the following scenarios is likely to occur regarding Netanyahu’s trial??
- Manifold Markets prices 1) Prolonged limbo via security delays at 86% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Which of the following scenarios is likely to occur regarding Netanyahu’s trial? resolve?
- Which of the following scenarios is likely to occur regarding Netanyahu’s trial? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Which of the following scenarios is likely to occur regarding Netanyahu’s trial? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution Criteria: