Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 23, 2026, 9:50 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current community forecastCommercially Available HEMs by 2030: Fully tamper-evident or tamper-proof AI hardware becomes commercially available before 2030 30.4%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
5
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 days ago
StaleFeb 6, 26, 1:52 PMJan 31, 30, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Location Verification for US Export Controls by 2028: The US enacts location verification requirements for exported chips before 2028 (enforcement may not begin until afterward)8%
Volume trend
$32Jul 222d of dataJul 23
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More context for these scenarios is provided in this article on the Forecasting AI Futures blog.
- I will not bet on this market.
- Resolution Criteria
- Each answer resolves YES if the specified governance scenario occurs by the stated deadline, and NO otherwise.
- Several scenarios can come true, and I'll use my best judgement to resolve each one.
- Location Verification for US Export Controls: Resolves YES if the US requires location verification for exported AI chips before 2028.