Current community forecast
No 84.5%
Forecasters
38
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Apr 10, 24, 6:31 AM UTCJan 1, 28, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Before 2028, will anyone train a GPT-4-level model in a minute?
Manifold MarketsHow much compute will be used to train GPT-5?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketGemini 4.0 released by which date?
PolymarketRules
Using the best estimates we have at the time, using actually-purchasable hardware.
- Generative Pre-trained Transformer 3 (GPT-3) is a large language model released by OpenAI in 2020.
- Like its predecessor, GPT-2, it is a decoder-only[2] transformer model of deep neural network, which supersedes recurrence and convolution-based architectures with a technique known as "attention".[3]
- It uses a 2048-tokens-long context[jargon], float16 (16-bit) precision, and a hitherto-unprecedented 175 billion parameters, requiring 350GB of storage space as each parameter takes 2 bytes of space, and has demonstrated strong "zero-shot" and "few-shot" learning abilities on many tasks.
- "GPT-3 equivalent" in terms of floating point operations that were needed to train gpt3, as well as space requirements, energy requirements, etc. Algorithmic improvements that make a smaller model as good as gpt3 as an LLM would not count for the purpose of this question.