KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
Gemini 88%Leader of 9 outcomes
Gemini 88%Market quality
70 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$18.6K
Open interest
$17.4K
Medium open interestSpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Oct 5, 26, 4:00 PM UTCOct 12, 26, 2:00 PM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 1h (informational)
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Best AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiBest AI in Oct 2026?
KalshiWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketWhich company has the best AI model end of November?
PolymarketWhich company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) end of November?
PolymarketRules
If Google has the top-ranked LLM on Oct 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)
- If two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.
Rules for each outcome
- Gemini
- If Google has the top-ranked LLM on Oct 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Claude
- If Anthropic has the top-ranked LLM on Oct 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Grok
- If xAI has the top-ranked LLM on Oct 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Amazon Nova
- If Amazon has the top-ranked LLM on Oct 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Qwen
- If Alibaba has the top-ranked LLM on Oct 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Dola
- If ByteDance has the top-ranked LLM on Oct 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Kimi
- If Moonshot has the top-ranked LLM on Oct 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- MUSE
- If Meta has the top-ranked LLM on Oct 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- ChatGPT
- If OpenAI has the top-ranked LLM on Oct 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.