Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastBetween 5e25 FLOP and 1.5e26 FLOP 75.5%+18.3ptLeader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
19
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+18.3 pts
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleDec 10, 23, 8:17 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
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PolymarketRules
This resolves as the bucket that contains the number of floating point operations (FLOP) used to train GPT-5
- FLOP may be performed at any precision (INT8, FP16, etc.)
- This resolves on the basis of the numbers reported by OpenAI, and, if they don't report this, on the basis of the first credible estimates reported in this database (details about the database may be found here)
- If GPT-5 is not released by EOY, 2027, this resolves ambiguously
- If the estimate is exactly on the edge of each range, we will resolve it as the largest of the two options