KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Above 101 88%+2.0ptLeader of 9 outcomes
Market quality
35 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$481.3
Liquidity
$781.3
Low liquiditySpread
9.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Aug 31, 26, 9:00 PM UTCOct 8, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiWill Google Gemini rank above ChatGPT in the App Store at EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Claude surpass ChatGPT in monthly active users by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRules
If the Carbon Arc ChatGPT App Downloads (September 2026) for September 2026 is the named outcome , then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Carbon Arc
- For purposes of this market, determination will resolve on the first value reported by Carbon Arc.
- Corrections or revisions made after the market has been settled will not affect the outcome.
- The index measures year-over-year, where 100 means ChatGPT App Downloads was equal to the same month last year.
- Values above 100 indicate growth and values below 100 indicate decline: for example, 103 = 3% growth, 97 = 3% decline from year prior.
- Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the underlying company.
Open markets
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $157.2K
- 24h Vol
- $119.4K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+10.0pt60%
- 2027+2.0pt31.4%
- 2026+2.0pt8.6%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.7pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-4.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $377.7K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.5pt23%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for ChatGPT App Downloads in September?
- Kalshi prices Above 101 at 88% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does ChatGPT App Downloads in September resolve?
- ChatGPT App Downloads in September is scheduled to resolve on October 8, 2026.
- How is ChatGPT App Downloads in September settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the Carbon Arc ChatGPT App Downloads (September 2026) for September 2026 is the named outcome , then the market resolves to Yes.