KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Above 89 (99%)
Resolved: Oct 8, 2026, 3:26 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 8, 2026, 2:10 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Above 973%
Above 1012%
Above 1072%
Above 89Won
Above 93Lost
Above 101Lost
Above 107Lost
Above 97Lost
Above 105Lost
Above 109Lost
Above 115Lost
Above 121Lost
Above 111Lost
Above 113Lost
Above 117Lost
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PolymarketRules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If the Carbon Arc ChatGPT App Downloads (September 2026) for September 2026 is the named outcome , then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Carbon Arc
- For purposes of this market, determination will resolve on the first value reported by Carbon Arc.
- Corrections or revisions made after the market has been settled will not affect the outcome.
- The index measures year-over-year, where 100 means ChatGPT App Downloads was equal to the same month last year.
- Values above 100 indicate growth and values below 100 indicate decline: for example, 103 = 3% growth, 97 = 3% decline from year prior.
- Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the underlying company.