KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
claude-fable-5.1-max 3%Leader of 7 outcomes
claude-fable-5.1-max 3%Market quality
47 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$21.3K
Open interest
$19.6K
Medium open interestMarket data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Oct 5, 26, 4:00 PM UTCOct 12, 26, 2:00 PM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketOctober 2026 AI model releases
Manifold MarketsRules
If claude-fable-5.1-max is the top-ranked AI model on Oct 12, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)
- If two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.
Rules for each outcome
- claude-fable-5.1-max
- If claude-fable-5.1-max is the top-ranked AI model on Oct 12, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- claude-opus-5.5-high
- If claude-opus-5.5-high is the top-ranked AI model on Oct 12, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- claude-opus-4-6
- If claude-opus-4-6 is the top-ranked AI model on Oct 12, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- claude-opus-4-6-high
- If claude-opus-4-6-high is the top-ranked AI model on Oct 12, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- gemini-3.8-flash-high
- If gemini-3.8-flash-high is the top-ranked AI model on Oct 12, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- claude-opus-5-max
- If claude-opus-5-max is the top-ranked AI model on Oct 12, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- gemini-4-argon-high
- If gemini-4-argon-high is the top-ranked AI model on Oct 12, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.