Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastAny Reflection AI model 95.6%+45.6ptLeader of 24 outcomes
Forecasters
72
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+45.6 pts
Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Sep 30, 26, 8:09 PM UTCOct 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiTop AI model this month
KalshiRules
This market resolves YES for each AI model that receives an official public release during October 2026.
- A release counts as available to users if it is widely made available through official channels (API, web interface, download, or official partnership).
- Subvariants are model releases that share the same tier name (e.g., Flash Preview, Flash Live, Flash Instant, Flash Image all count for "Gemini 3.1 Flash"; 5.5-Thinking, 5.5-Instant, 5.5-Nano, 5.5-Pro all count for "GPT5.5").
- Releases with a distinct tier name (Flash-Lite, Flash, Pro as a separate tier, etc.) do NOT count for an adjacent tier, even within the same model family.
- When in doubt, I'll use the official model name the company uses to classify it.
- Please ask for clarifications.