KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
Above 1800 95%-3.0ptMarket line of 12 lines
Above 1800 95%-3.0ptMarket quality
71 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$17.3K
Open interest
$21.9K
Medium open interestSpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Aug 31, 26, 9:00 PM UTCOct 8, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
If the Carbon Arc Claude App Downloads (September 2026) for September 2026 is above 1800 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Carbon Arc
- For purposes of this market, determination will resolve on the first value reported by Carbon Arc. Corrections or revisions made after the market has been settled will not affect the outcome. The index measures year-over-year, where 100 means Claude App Downloads was equal to the same month last year. Values above 100 indicate growth and values below 100 indicate decline: for example, 103 = 3% growth, 97 = 3% decline from year prior. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the underlying company. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Rules for each outcome
- Above 1300
- If the Carbon Arc Claude App Downloads (September 2026) for September 2026 is above 1300 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 1450
- If the Carbon Arc Claude App Downloads (September 2026) for September 2026 is above 1450 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 1400
- If the Carbon Arc Claude App Downloads (September 2026) for September 2026 is above 1400 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 1700
- If the Carbon Arc Claude App Downloads (September 2026) for September 2026 is above 1700 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 1600
- If the Carbon Arc Claude App Downloads (September 2026) for September 2026 is above 1600 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 1550
- If the Carbon Arc Claude App Downloads (September 2026) for September 2026 is above 1550 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 1500
- If the Carbon Arc Claude App Downloads (September 2026) for September 2026 is above 1500 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 1650
- If the Carbon Arc Claude App Downloads (September 2026) for September 2026 is above 1650 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 1800
- If the Carbon Arc Claude App Downloads (September 2026) for September 2026 is above 1800 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 2100
- If the Carbon Arc Claude App Downloads (September 2026) for September 2026 is above 2100 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 1900
- If the Carbon Arc Claude App Downloads (September 2026) for September 2026 is above 1900 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 2000
- If the Carbon Arc Claude App Downloads (September 2026) for September 2026 is above 2000 , then the market resolves to Yes.