KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
Above 1400 64%Market line of 7 lines
Above 1400 64%Market quality
31 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$429.9
Open interest
$437.7
Low open interestSpread
61.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Oct 1, 26, 4:00 AM UTCNov 8, 26, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
If the Carbon Arc Claude App Downloads (October 2026) for October 2026 is above 1400 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Carbon Arc
- For purposes of this market, determination will resolve on finalized Carbon Arc values recorded at 11:59 p.m. ET on the 7th calendar day after the end of the month covered by this market. For example, finalized Carbon Arc values for August will be recorded at 11:59 p.m. ET on September 7th. The index measures year-over-year, where 100 means Claude App Downloads was equal to the same month last year. Values above 100 indicate growth and values below 100 indicate decline: for example, 103 = 3% growth, 97 = 3% decline from year prior. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the underlying company. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Rules for each outcome
- Above 600
- If the Carbon Arc Claude App Downloads (October 2026) for October 2026 is above 600 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 1400
- If the Carbon Arc Claude App Downloads (October 2026) for October 2026 is above 1400 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 1700
- If the Carbon Arc Claude App Downloads (October 2026) for October 2026 is above 1700 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 2000
- If the Carbon Arc Claude App Downloads (October 2026) for October 2026 is above 2000 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 2300
- If the Carbon Arc Claude App Downloads (October 2026) for October 2026 is above 2300 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 2600
- If the Carbon Arc Claude App Downloads (October 2026) for October 2026 is above 2600 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 5800
- If the Carbon Arc Claude App Downloads (October 2026) for October 2026 is above 5800 , then the market resolves to Yes.