KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
Above 2.5% 18%-27.0ptMarket line of 7 lines
Above 2.5% 18%-27.0ptMarket quality
72 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$21.3K
Open interest
$30.6K
High open interestSpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 23 minutes ago
Sep 28, 26, 10:00 PM UTCOct 5, 26, 2:00 PM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Anthropic share of spend on Oct 2, 2026 (Vercel)
KalshiAnthropic share of requests on Oct 2, 2026 (Vercel)
KalshiAnthropic share of requests on Oct 6, 2026 (Vercel)
KalshiAnthropic share of spend on Oct 6, 2026 (Vercel)
KalshiWill a non-lab AI-only effort solve a Millennium Problem in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketRules
If Anthropic scores above 2.5% on OpenRouter text market share by model author week of Sep 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:OpenRouter - AI Market Share
- This event will resolve based on 10:00AM ET Monday updated market share values reported by OpenRouter, rounded to one decimal place, for the week of Sep 28, 2026. If the named model author’s market share is not separately identified in the source chart, including if it is included in “Others,” all markets in the event will resolve to No. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the governing benchmark. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Rules for each outcome
- Above 2.2%
- If Anthropic scores above 2.2% on OpenRouter text market share by model author week of Sep 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 2.5%
- If Anthropic scores above 2.5% on OpenRouter text market share by model author week of Sep 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 2.7%
- If Anthropic scores above 2.7% on OpenRouter text market share by model author week of Sep 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 2.8%
- If Anthropic scores above 2.8% on OpenRouter text market share by model author week of Sep 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 3.0%
- If Anthropic scores above 3.0% on OpenRouter text market share by model author week of Sep 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 2.9%
- If Anthropic scores above 2.9% on OpenRouter text market share by model author week of Sep 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 3.1%
- If Anthropic scores above 3.1% on OpenRouter text market share by model author week of Sep 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.