Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 71.4%
Yes 71.4%Forecasters
49
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleJun 5, 24, 1:47 AM UTCJan 1, 28, 4:59 AM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
In "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead", Leopold Aschenbrenner claims:
- In 2027, a leading AI lab will be able to train a GPT-4-level model in a minute.
- Resolves YES if by the end of 2027, a credible claim is made that:
- Someone trained a GPT-4-level model in a minute.
- or 1440 GPT-4-level models in a day, to account for parallelism
- GPT-4-level will be evaluated using the same benchmarks as in the GPT-4 Technical Report Table 2.