Current community forecast
2026 75.9%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
15
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleJun 24, 25, 8:26 PM UTCJan 1, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Before 2028, will anyone train a GPT-4-level model in a minute?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketGemini 4.0 released by which date?
PolymarketWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketRules
Resolves to the first year where a model is released that: 1.
- Can be run locally on a reasonable consumer phone 2.
- Has comparable scores on most benchmarks to o3-mini (medium).
- I will judge 2 based on benchmarks like Codeforces scores, AIME math, GPQA-Diamond, etc, but will use discretion if it seems obvious some benchmarks have been compromised and that the AI is clearly inferior to o3-mini.
- It will not need to surpass or match o3-mini's performance on all of these, but it will need to do so on the majority.
- Again, some discretion will be used here.