Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
>2028 87%Leader of 23 outcomes
Forecasters
14
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleNov 21, 24, 3:59 PM UTCDec 31, 28, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
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0.4%
0.3%
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
This market predicts when a nuclear weapon will be used aggressively.
- Resolution criteria:
- Qualifies as aggressive use:
- Use of any nuclear weapon (including tactical) against another nation
- Nuclear detonations caused by non-state actors or unknown perpetrators
- Accidental nuke uses that impact outside the initiating nation's borders
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.0pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $26M
- 24h Vol
- $717.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt49.6%
- October 31-2.0pt29.1%
- September 30-4.0pt12%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-21.5pt47%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.3pt1%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $65M
- 24h Vol
- $116.9K
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- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will the next attack by a nuclear weapon take place??
- Manifold Markets prices >2028 at 87% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does When will the next attack by a nuclear weapon take place? resolve?
- When will the next attack by a nuclear weapon take place? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2028.
- How is When will the next attack by a nuclear weapon take place? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market predicts when a nuclear weapon will be used aggressively.