Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 94.3%
Forecasters
14
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleSep 12, 23, 2:08 AM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations during Trump's term?
KalshiDoes Saudi Arabia normalize with Israel before December 31 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Israel invade Saudi Arabia in 2028?
Manifold MarketsSaudi Arabia military action against Yemen by which date?
PolymarketMohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by which date?
PolymarketUAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026?
PolymarketRules
Background: Saudi Arabia's Trojena in Neom to host 2029 Asian Winter Games
Open markets
Middle EastPOLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $26.9M
- 24h Vol
- $363.4K
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-19.5pt49%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+6.1pt59.2%
- Benjamin Netanyahu-3.0pt27.6%
- Naftali Bennett-1.0pt7.1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
- September 30+0.3pt100%
- May 8-1.4pt0%
- May 31-1.2pt0%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- No+0.3pt98%
- Yes-0.3pt2%
- Total Vol
- $8.1M
- 24h Vol
- $178.2K
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Netanyahu out by which date?
- Crude Oil all time high by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the 2029 Asian Winter Games take place in Saudi Arabia??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 94% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the 2029 Asian Winter Games take place in Saudi Arabia? resolve?
- Will the 2029 Asian Winter Games take place in Saudi Arabia? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2028.
- How is Will the 2029 Asian Winter Games take place in Saudi Arabia? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Background: Saudi Arabia's Trojena in Neom to host 2029 Asian Winter Games