Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 88%
Forecasters
27
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleOct 3, 25, 2:24 PM UTCNov 8, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the 2028 US Presidential Election occur as scheduled?
Manifold MarketsWill the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
PolymarketWill Florida PALM go live as scheduled on January 11, 2027?
Manifold MarketsLA28 Olympics run as scheduled?
PolymarketWill The Chocolate Experience at Cadbury Tasmania open in late 2027 as scheduled?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the next UK General Election take place?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves YES if the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election takes place on its official date of November 7, 2028.
- Early or mail-in voting before that date does not affect resolution.
- Minor local delays (e.g., weather or logistical issues) do not count as postponement if the national Election Day proceeds as scheduled.
- Resolves NO if the election is postponed, canceled, or moved to a different date.
- Resolution will be based on announcements from official U.S. election authorities and confirmation by major media outlets.
