Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 4:28 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 81.3%
Forecasters
22
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleJun 18, 25, 9:25 PM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
This market evaluates the likelihood of a nuclear weapon (dirty bomb, tactical nuke, war-heard, etc.) being used in any conflict worldwide before January 1 2029.
- With rising global tensions and the modernization of nuclear arsenals by several countries, the risk of nuclear weapon use is a pressing concern.
- Resolution will be based on reports from international news agencies and official government statements.