Current community forecast
Labour > Conservative > Reform > Lib Dem 22%-2.7ptLeader of 10 outcomes
Forecasters
17
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-2.7 pts
Market data
Updated 18 hours ago
StaleOct 12, 25, 4:57 PM UTCSep 1, 29, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
This market resolves to the four largest parties by number of seats in the UK House of Commons following the next UK general election after the July 2024 election.
- Answers should have the form A > B > C > D, where A is the party with the most seats, B is the party with the second-highest number of seats, and so on.
- Note that this may not correspond to the four parties with the most votes, due to the UK's first-past-the-post electoral system.
- If there is a tie, this market will resolve to PROB, with all answers that are a valid order resolving equally (e.g. if the two largest parties A and B have the same number of seats, and parties C and D are the next largest and also tied, then four answers will resolve to 25% each, i.e. A > B > C > D; B > A > C > D; A > B > D > C; and B > A > D > C).
- Here are the top-four parties by seats for every election since 2000:
- 2024 election: Labour > Conservative > Lib Dem > SNP
