What prediction market will have the most accurate prediction for the Senate midterm election of 2026? (Read Rules)
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection1moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastPolymarket 35.6%Leader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
8
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJul 31, 26, 9:46 AM UTCNov 4, 26, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
This market will resolve to which prediction is the most accurate based on the formula outlined below.
- For the purposes of this market, the winner of the Senate will be the party that AP declares will hold a majority in the Senate as a result of the 2026 midterms (this includes the tie-breaking vote of the vice president and independent senators who are known to caucus with one party).
- If there is a tie, the market that had the most accurate prediction at 8 PM on the day of the midterms will win.
- The accuracy of a market's forecasts shall be measured using a Linear Decreasing Time-Weighted Brier Score.
- The purpose of this scoring rule is to reward markets that make accurate forecasts earlier in the life of the market, rather than only shortly before the outcome becomes known.
- Markets will be measured once per calendar day.
Open markets
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for What prediction market will have the most accurate prediction for the Senate midterm election of 2026? (Read Rules)?
- Manifold Markets prices Polymarket at 36% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does What prediction market will have the most accurate prediction for the Senate midterm election of 2026? (Read Rules) resolve?
- What prediction market will have the most accurate prediction for the Senate midterm election of 2026? (Read Rules) is scheduled to resolve on November 4, 2026.
- How is What prediction market will have the most accurate prediction for the Senate midterm election of 2026? (Read Rules) settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to which prediction is the most accurate based on the formula outlined below.