Will any US Federal or Statewide Midterm Election be within 0.01%?
2.0 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-OffElectionUS Politics1mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 75%+2.0pt
Market quality
33 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$289.1
Low liquidityBid / Ask
11.0% / 39.0%
Spread
28.0 pt
Wide spreadComments
0
7d Change
-6.5 pts
Market data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Sep 1, 26, 4:20 PM UTCNov 3, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if any federal or statewide election held on November 3 has a margin of victory of 0.01% or less.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates.
- Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate or option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
- In the midterms, a federal election is an election to either the United States Senate or House of Representatives (including non-voting seats), and a statewide election is any election, excluding ballot measures, which is on the ballot for all voting individuals within one of the fifty United States.
