What party will win the special election to fill JD Vance's Senate seat?
PoliticsUS PoliticsElection1moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastDemocratic 56.4%Leader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
41
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingNov 7, 24, 3:28 AM UTCNov 4, 26, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
0.4%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Who will win the 2026 United States Senate special election in Ohio (to fill JD Vance's seat)?
Manifold MarketsWill a Republican win the US Senate special election in Florida in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill a Democrat win the Ohio Senate special election?
Manifold MarketsWill the TX-23 special election be scheduled to a date before the midterms?
KalshiWill Jon Husted win the Ohio special election for US Senate in 2026?
ForecastExWill Sherrod Brown win the Ohio special election for US Senate in 2026?
ForecastExRules
The special election for the U.S. Senate in Ohio to fill JD Vance's vacated seat will take place in the 2026 midterms.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Manifold Markets — Will a Democrat win the Ohio Senate special election? · Yes 54%
- Also available on ForecastEx — Will Jon Husted win the Ohio special election for US Senate in 2026? · No 51%
- Also available on PredictIt — Which party will win the 2026 US Senate special election in Ohio? · Democratic 55%
Open markets
Politics
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-0.2pt19%
- Jon Ossoff16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+48 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3B
- 24h Vol
- $2M
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Flávio Bolsonaro+7.2pt54.5%
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-8.0pt43.6%
- Renan Santos+0.3pt2%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen-3.1pt35.4%
- Édouard Philippe31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon12.5%
+38 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhat will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Fraud+68.0pt99%
- Transgender+62.0pt99%
- Oil / Gas / Gasoline+55.0pt99%
+36 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+0.5pt18%
- Tucker Carlson+0.1pt4%
+39 more outcomes
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+2.0pt86%
- Republican Party-2.0pt14%
- Total Vol
- $29.9M
- 24h Vol
- $557.8K
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- 2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
- Florida Governor winner?
- Putin out as President of Russia by which date?
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Will the Clarity Act become law?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for What party will win the special election to fill JD Vance's Senate seat??
- Manifold Markets prices Democratic at 56% as of September 11, 2026.
- When does What party will win the special election to fill JD Vance's Senate seat? resolve?
- What party will win the special election to fill JD Vance's Senate seat? is scheduled to resolve on November 4, 2026.
- How is What party will win the special election to fill JD Vance's Senate seat? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The special election for the U.S. Senate in Ohio to fill JD Vance's vacated seat will take place in the 2026 midterms.
- Where else is What party will win the special election to fill JD Vance's Senate seat? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Manifold Markets, ForecastEx, PredictIt.