What party will win the special election to fill JD Vance's Senate seat?
PoliticsUS PoliticsElection3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jun 5, 2026, 2:06 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current community forecastDemocratic 57.6%Leader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
40
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 52 days ago
StaleNov 7, 24, 3:28 AMNov 4, 26, 5:59 AM
Trends
0.4%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Democratic58%
Compare venues· Democratic
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume
Also available on PredictIt
Which party will win the 2026 US Senate special election in Ohio?
11mo
51%
-1.0pt51%
Retail prediction exchange
PREDICTITAlso available on Manifold Markets
Will a Democrat win the Ohio Senate special election?
3mo
51.3%
48.7%
Community forecast48 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
The special election for the U.S.
- Senate in Ohio to fill JD Vance's vacated seat will take place in the 2026 midterms.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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The special election for the U.S.
- Senate in Ohio to fill JD Vance's vacated seat will take place in the 2026 midterms.