What party will win the special election to fill JD Vance's Senate seat?
1.7 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2026 US Midterms7d
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastDemocratic 72.2%-1.7ptLeader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
74
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+9.2 pts
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleNov 7, 24, 3:28 AM UTCNov 4, 26, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Who will win the 2026 United States Senate special election in Ohio (to fill JD Vance's seat)?
Manifold MarketsWill a Democrat win the Ohio Senate special election?
Manifold MarketsWill a Republican win the US Senate special election in Florida in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Sherrod Brown win the Ohio special election for US Senate in 2026?
ForecastExWill the TX-23 special election be scheduled to a date before the midterms?
KalshiWill there be any Congressional Special Election flips in the 119th Congress?
Manifold MarketsRules
The special election for the U.S. Senate in Ohio to fill JD Vance's vacated seat will take place in the 2026 midterms.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Manifold Markets — Will a Democrat win the Ohio Senate special election? · Yes 70%
- Also available on ForecastEx — Will Jon Husted win the Ohio special election for US Senate in 2026? · No 66%
- Also available on PredictIt — Which party will win the 2026 US Senate special election in Ohio? · Democratic (Brown) 70%
