Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 54.2%
Forecasters
49
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleJul 23, 24, 1:46 AM UTCNov 23, 26, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will a Republican win the US Senate special election in Florida in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWho will win the 2026 United States Senate special election in Ohio (to fill JD Vance's seat)?
Manifold MarketsOhio Senate Special Election
SmarketsWill the TX-23 special election be scheduled to a date before the midterms?
KalshiWhat party will win the special election to fill JD Vance's Senate seat?
Manifold MarketsWill Jon Husted win the Ohio special election for US Senate in 2026?
ForecastExRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Manifold Markets — What party will win the special election to fill JD Vance's Senate seat? · Democratic 56%
- Also available on ForecastEx — Will Jon Husted win the Ohio special election for US Senate in 2026? · No 51%
- Also available on PredictIt — Which party will win the 2026 US Senate special election in Ohio? · Democratic 55%
Open markets
Politics
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-0.2pt19%
- Jon Ossoff16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+48 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3B
- 24h Vol
- $2M
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Flávio Bolsonaro+7.2pt54.5%
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-8.0pt43.6%
- Renan Santos+0.3pt2%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen-3.1pt35.4%
- Édouard Philippe31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon12.5%
+38 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhat will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Fraud+68.0pt99%
- Transgender+62.0pt99%
- Oil / Gas / Gasoline+55.0pt99%
+36 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+0.5pt18%
- Tucker Carlson+0.1pt4%
+39 more outcomes
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+2.0pt86%
- Republican Party-2.0pt14%
- Total Vol
- $29.9M
- 24h Vol
- $557.8K
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
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- 2028 Democratic presidential nominee
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- 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a Democrat win the Ohio Senate special election??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 54% as of September 11, 2026.
- When does Will a Democrat win the Ohio Senate special election? resolve?
- Will a Democrat win the Ohio Senate special election? is scheduled to resolve on November 23, 2026.
- Where else is Will a Democrat win the Ohio Senate special election? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Manifold Markets, ForecastEx, PredictIt.