Will a Republican win the US Senate special election in Florida in 2026?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2026 US Midterms17d
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 90.3%
Forecasters
68
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 21 minutes ago
Nov 12, 24, 8:18 PM UTCNov 11, 26, 1:29 PM UTC
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Who will win the 2026 United States Senate special election in Ohio (to fill JD Vance's seat)?
Manifold MarketsWill a Democrat win the Ohio Senate special election?
Manifold MarketsWill Jon Husted win the Ohio special election for US Senate in 2026?
ForecastExWill Angie Nixon win the Florida special election for US Senate in 2026?
ForecastExWill Sherrod Brown win the Ohio special election for US Senate in 2026?
ForecastExWill Ashley Moody win the Florida special election for US Senate in 2026?
ForecastExRules
If Marco Rubio leaves the Senate, there will be a special election in 2026 to decide who will fill the position for the remaining 2 years of that term.
- If a GOP candidate wins this election, this market resolves yes.
- If a non-GOP candidate wins, the election isn't held, or some other outcome occurs, this market resolves NO.
