SOAI#4: A deepfake/agent-driven cyber attack triggers the first NATO/UN emergency debate on AI security
GeopoliticsOne-OffEuropeAI
Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No (94.7%)
Resolved: Oct 11, 2026, 9:45 PM
Provider-verified resolution
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Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 12, 2026, 12:02 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Yes5.3%
No94.7%
Won
Lost
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PolymarketRules
This market resolves to YES or NO as per the 2026 State of AI Report's self grading of its prediction #4: A deepfake/agent-driven cyber attack triggers the first NATO/UN emergency debate on AI security.
- If they do not issue a ruling by EOY 2026, I will resolve by asking Anthropic's best model to evaluate based on their exact wording.