SOAI#4: A deepfake/agent-driven cyber attack triggers the first NATO/UN emergency debate on AI security
GeopoliticsOne-OffEuropeAI3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 75.2%
Forecasters
31
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleOct 9, 25, 11:05 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
SOAI#8: A Chinese lab overtakes the US lab dominated frontier on a major leaderboard (e.g. LMArena/Artificial Analysis)
Manifold MarketsU.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?
PolymarketEuropean country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by which date?
PolymarketWill Armenia withdraw from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill a government mandate restrict access to an OpenAI or xAI model on security or safety grounds before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill any of the UN’s Security Council permanent members leave the Non-Proliferation Treaty by the end of 2026?
FutuurRules
This market resolves to YES or NO as per the 2026 State of AI Report's self grading of its prediction #4: A deepfake/agent-driven cyber attack triggers the first NATO/UN emergency debate on AI security.
- If they do not issue a ruling by EOY 2026, I will resolve by asking Anthropic's best model to evaluate based on their exact wording.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-6.0pt74%
- September 18-6.0pt69%
- September 11-8.5pt62%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.2M
- 24h Vol
- $424.6K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+1.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)+0.4pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.1pt3%
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No+3.0pt79.2%
- Yes-3.0pt20.8%
- Total Vol
- $10.9M
- 24h Vol
- $286K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.1pt49.1%
- October 31-1.0pt28.8%
- September 3011.9%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for SOAI#4: A deepfake/agent-driven cyber attack triggers the first NATO/UN emergency debate on AI security?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 75% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does SOAI#4: A deepfake/agent-driven cyber attack triggers the first NATO/UN emergency debate on AI security resolve?
- SOAI#4: A deepfake/agent-driven cyber attack triggers the first NATO/UN emergency debate on AI security is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is SOAI#4: A deepfake/agent-driven cyber attack triggers the first NATO/UN emergency debate on AI security settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves to YES or NO as per the 2026 State of AI Report's self grading of its prediction #4: A deepfake/agent-driven cyber attack triggers the first NATO/UN emergency debate on AI security.