Should I expect Democrats to win back the house in 2026 midterm election?
42.0 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2026 US Midterms28d
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes, Democrats will win back the House 92%+42.0pt
Forecasters
8
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+42.0 pts
Market data
Updated 44 minutes ago
Oct 31, 26, 6:06 PM UTCNov 30, 26, 11:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Democrats win back the House in 2026 ?
Manifold MarketsWill Democrats win back the house in 2026 midterms?
Manifold MarketsWill "Why we should expect ruthless sociopath ASI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill Democrats lose the house in the 2026 midterm elections?
Manifold MarketsWill any US Federal or Statewide Midterm Election be within 0.01%?
PolymarketHow many House seats will Republicans win in the 2026 midterm election?
PredictItRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves based on the official outcome of the 2026 United States House of Representatives elections.
- Each answer option will resolve independently as follows:
- "the named outcome": Resolves YES if the Democratic Party wins at least 218 seats (or a majority of the seats contested) in the 2026 U.S. House elections, thereby taking majority control of the chamber for the 120th Congress.
- Otherwise, it resolves NO.
- "the named outcome": Resolves YES if the Republican Party retains at least 218 seats (or a working majority) following the 2026 midterm elections.
