Will Democrats win back the house in 2026 midterms?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2026 US Midterms13d
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 93.1%
Forecasters
18
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 41 minutes ago
Sep 19, 26, 3:15 AM UTCNov 14, 26, 11:00 AM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, as a result of the 2026 United States House of Representatives elections (scheduled for November 3, 2026), the Democratic Party wins back control of the House of Representatives for the 120th Congress.
- Specifically, YES will be the resolving outcome if:
- The Democratic Party wins a majority of at least 218 of the 435 voting seats.
- Or, if neither major party wins 218 seats due to independents or third-party representatives, the Democratic Party successfully organizes the chamber (e.g., by electing a Democrat as Speaker of the House at the start of the 120th Congress in January 2027).
- The market will resolve to NO if the Republican Party (or any other non-Democratic coalition) retains or wins a majority of seats or successfully organizes the chamber.